约翰刘易斯因新的亏损而推迟了扭亏为盈的计划； Arm 为华尔街交易第一天做好准备 – 商业直播 | 商业

The business department has released new quarterly data for the £77bn the total drawn value Covid loan schemes, which were meant to keep businesses afloat during the pandemic lockdowns.

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Most strikingly, they show that commercial banks – which distributed the government-backed loans to firms – flagged around £1.69bn of those loans for suspected fraud.

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That marks a 43% rise from the £1.1bn flagged three months earlier, and means that taxpayers could be on the hook for more than the government last estimated (based on the business department’s 2021-2022 annual report).

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The figures are becoming clearer as businesses start to repay the loans.

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And the fraud issue has been divisive.

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While the government credits the programme with having saved 500,000 businesses and 2.9m jobs through the Covid crisis, it prompted former Cabinet Office minister Theodore Agnew to resign in protest in January 2022, citing the government’s “woeful” efforts to control potential fraud.

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The business department’s last set of estimates suggested taxpayers will be left nursing about £1.1bn in losses due to error and fraud by scammers – including disqualified directors reported to have spent tens of thousands of pounds worth of government-backed loans on anything from a Range Rover to pornographic websites.

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We’re still waiting on the business department’s latest annual report – which was tipped to be released today but may be delayed – to give some indication of the government’s own figures and forecasts for fraud and error.

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Stay tuned.

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Back to the hottest IPO of the year.

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Some market players are expecting Arm shares to climb when they start trading on Wall Street this afternoon.

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New Street Research, for example, has initiated a buy rating, setting a target price of $59 each.

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That is compared to the $51 starting price, which was already at the top of Arm’s own range.

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And no surprise, then, that Wall Street is expected to rise at the open, given the anticipation of Arm’s debut on the Nasdaq:

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• Nasdaq futures are up 0.33% at 15,605 points

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• Dow futures are up 0.26% at 35,009 points

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• S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% at 4,532 points

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to increase interest rates across the 20-member euro currency zone in a few hours time.

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Speeches and question and answer sessions with ECB council members over rent months have shown a strong leaning towards tightening monetary policy to kill off any signs of inflation.

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Analysts at UBS said they expect a 0.25 percentage point rate hike to 4% and for this to be the peak.

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If we are wrong and the ECB leaves rates on hold, we would expect it to keep the door open for an October hike.

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The key reason why we expect the ECB to deliver a final hike next week is that we anticipate the its new staff macroeconomic projections to show a 2025 inflation forecast that is still above 2%.

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Like the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, the ECB’s policy makers say “price stability is best maintained by aiming for 2% inflation over the medium term”.

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John Lewis bosses have insisted that despite the delay to the turnaround plan deadline, they expect the group “will return to profit much earlier than that.”

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But how much earlier, is still TBC.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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We start the day with news that UK chip designer Arm Holdings has secured a bumper $54.5bn valuation ahead of its first day of trading.

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It comes after the Softbank-backed company priced shares at the top of its initial estimate, at $51 each, as investors scrambled for a piece of the action in the biggest initial public offering of the year.

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Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown said:

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Despite some concerns about the company’s exposure to numerous risks in China, it’s not stopped a juggernaut of enthusiasm, with the IPO oversubscribed multiple times, with interest from tech giants like Nvidia, Apple and Alphabet.

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Given the eagerness from investors , it seems Arm could have pushed for an even higher price, but is playing it safe to try to ensure a surge in the share price once trading gets underway.

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While enthusiasm is high for the company’s return to public markets, seeing the UK company list on the US Nasdaq rather than in London, is another embarrassment for the City.

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But Streeter explains that there was no room for sentiment as Softbank pursued the best price for Arm’s return to public markets.

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The fanfare surrounding today’s launch in New York will cement disappointment that London has been shunned, even though the decision was announced back in March.

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Arm was very much seen as a British success story, but owner SoftBank is pulling no sentimental punches here and wants the biggest bang for its buck.

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We’ll bring you further reaction, and Arm’s first market moves, in the hours ahead.

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The agenda

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• 9:30am BST: UK Covid loan data

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• 1:15pm BST: ECB interest rate announcement & press conference

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• 1.30pm BST: US PPI, retail sales, and weekly jobless claims

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• 2:30pm BST: US markets open for trading

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Disappointing news from the John Lewis Partnership this morning.

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The partnership, which runs John Lewis department stores and Waitrose supermarkets, reported a £59m pre-tax loss in the six months to July.

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While that is an improvement on the £99.2m loss reported during the same period last year, the company said it was still struggling due to the ripple effects of high inflation, which has racked up costs and resulted in customers being more cautious with their spending.

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The partnership said inflation – which increased its costs by £179m last year – is also partly to blame for its failure to deliver on its turnaround plan, which is now going to be delayed by two years.

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The retailer said:

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A combination of inflationary pressures and greater than expected investment requirements for our transformation means it will take a further two years to deliver the Partnership Plan – to 2027/28 rather than to 2025/26.

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That plan, originally announced in October 2020, was meant to see the John Lewis Partnership reach £400m profit by the end of the programme, including through making its operations and head office more efficient.

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Despite the challenges, the JLP’s chair Sharon White, tried to strike a positive tone:

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The Partnership is a unique model that has been tested and come through stronger many times in our 100 year history. While change is never easy – and there is a long road ahead – there are reasons for optimism. Performance is improving. More customers are shopping with us. Trust in the brands and support for the Partnership model remain high.

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关键事件

菲利普·英曼

欧洲央行 (ECB) 预计将在数小时内提高 20 个欧元区成员国的利率。

在租金月期间与欧洲央行理事会成员的演讲和问答会议显示出强烈倾向于收紧货币政策以消除任何通胀迹象。

瑞银(UBS)分析师表示，他们预计利率将上涨0.25个百分点至4%，这将是峰值。

如果我们错了，欧洲央行维持利率不变，我们预计它将为 10 月份加息敞开大门。

我们预计欧洲央行下周将进行最终加息的关键原因是，我们预计其新的宏观经济预测将显示 2025 年通胀率仍将高于 2%。

与英格兰银行和美联储一样，欧洲央行的政策制定者也表示，“维持物价稳定的最佳办法是在中期内实现 2% 的通胀目标”。

乔安娜帕特里奇

完整故事： 莎朗·怀特提出乐观理由，约翰·刘易斯的损失收窄

业主为 约翰·刘易斯 维特罗斯(Waitrose)报告上半年再次亏损，并承认其扭亏为盈计划需要两年的时间才能实现，目前仍处于亏损状态。

截至 7 月 29 日的 26 周，John Lewis Partnership 的税前亏损为 5900 万英镑，因为该公司继续面临成本上涨的压力，并注意到购物者在生活成本危机期间的谨慎态度。

不过，该零售集团表示，其业绩正在改善，税前亏损比上年同期报告的 9900 万英镑亏损减少了 41%。

尽管经济形势充满挑战，购物者仍继续在自己身上花钱，服装、美容产品和“堂食”的销售额均在上升。

然而，事实证明，消费者对花钱购买家居“大件”物品（例如科技产品或沙发）持谨慎态度，这些产品的销量下降了。

结果，John Lewis 百货连锁店的营业利润从 2.95 亿英镑下降至 2.77 亿英镑。 然而，Waitrose 超市的营业利润从近 4.32 亿英镑增至 5.044 亿英镑，尽管 今年早些时候的 IT 问题，这影响了产品的可用性。

John Lewis 销售额下降 2%，而 Waitrose 销售额增长 4%。

在这里阅读更多内容：

英国超市的情况也并非一帆风顺。

德国折扣超市 Lidl 的英国分公司已陷入年度亏损，因为试图为顾客保持低价，加上成本上升和通货膨胀，影响了业绩。

Lidl GB 报告截至 2 月份的 12 个月内税前亏损 7600 万英镑，低于税前利润 4100 万英镑

尽管全年收入增长了 19%，达到 93 亿英镑，但由于其低廉的价格吸引了更多的购物者，情况仍然如此。