布鲁塞尔指责苹果违反欧盟规则；德国企业士气低落 – 商业直播 | 商业

Kemi Badenoch then explains that governments respond to changing circumstances and instability – citing elections in Europe, and across the Atlantic.

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In an apparent criticism of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Badenoch declares:

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n

Look at what is happening in the US – we don’t even want to talk about the candidates that they’ve got for election, so many difficulties.

n

This uncertainty is all over the world, and we have managed to keep our economy growing.

n

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[er, there was a shallow recession last year….]

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关于净零的观点， 巴德诺克 补充说，这可能是一个机会，但也需要在“不后悔”的基础上实现其他目标。

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You can watch the debate between Kemi Badenoch and Jonathan Reynolds here:

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Bloomberg are hosting a debate now between business secretary Kemi Badenoch and her Labour opposite number, Jonathan Reynolds.

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Reynolds speaks first, declaring that there’s no reasonable argument for the Conservative’s to remain in office.

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He says:

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n

The last 14 years have been marked by political chaos, by economic stagnation and – too frequently – by improper behaviour.

n

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Business and investors need stability, and that only comes with a change to a Labour government, Reynolds pledges.

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Reynolds adds that Labour have an agenda to get Britain moving: planning reform, an industrial strategy, ambitions on green energy, and a “pragmatic, good-faith” relationship with the EU.

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He adds reforming the apprentive levy, business rates, and an agenda for small businesses, to that list of plans.

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Reynolds says Labour is hugely appreciative of the support it has received from businesses, adding:

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n

Together we can turn the page on the last few years, look to the future, and start to rebuild Britain.

n

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London Tunnels, a company that plans to turn Second World War tunnels in the UK capital into a tourist attraction, has ditched plans to float in the City.

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Instead, London Tunnels has decided to raise money by floating on the Amsterdam stock exchange.

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London Tunnels plans to restore the Kingsway Exchange Tunnels in Central London, originally built in the early 1940s, and designed to shelter people during the London Blitz.

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Back in January, it announced it intended to float on the London Stock Exchange, saying it was right that the tunnels – which it has agreed to buy – should be listed in London.

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But it has now dropped those plans in favour of an IPO on Amsterdam’s Euronext, in a blow to the capital’s public markets.

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London Tunnels hopes to raise £30m, and be valued at £130m.

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The float prospectus, though, warns that its plans could be delayed if it can’t get the full planning permission it needs to turn the tunnels into a tourist attraction that can accommodate three million visitors per year.

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Other risks include the possibility that it doesn’t manage to acquire the leasehold of the Tunnels, or that the “structural integrity of the Tunnels” may be affected by their age or other factors.

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Apple has been found to be in breach of sweeping new EU laws designed to allow smaller companies to compete and allow consumers to find cheaper and alternative apps in the tech business’s app store.

n The European Commission, which also acts as the EU antitrust and technology regulator, said it had sent its preliminary findings to Apple following an investigation launched in March.

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In preliminary findings, against which Apple can appeal, the European Commission said it believed its rules of engagement did not comply with the Digital Markets Act (DMA) “as they prevent app developers from freely steering consumers to alternatives channels for offers and content”.

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In addition, the commission has opened a new non-compliance procedure against Apple over concerns its new contract terms for third-party app developers also fall short of the DMA’s requirements.

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More here:

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Back in the UK, the Institute for Fiscal Studies is warning that the UK’s public finances face a “toxic mix”, with debt at a 60-year high, taxes near an all-time high, and public services visibly struggling.

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In its analysis of the political parties manifestos, the IFS says spending on many public services will likely need to be cut over the next five years if government debt is not to ratchet ever upwards or unless taxes are increased further.

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The IFS say this is due to high debt interest costs, a growing welfare budget, and rising spending on health and defence.

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It accuses the two main parties of largely ignoring these raw facts.

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IFS director Paul Johnson explains:

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n

We need more efficient and effective public services. We need a government laser-focused on improving our economic performance. It’s good to see those facts acknowledged. But on the big issues over which governments have direct control – on how they will change tax, welfare, public spending – the manifestos of the main parties provide thin gruel indeed. On 4 July we will be voting in a knowledge vacuum.

n

If – as is likely – growth forecasts are not revised up this autumn, we do not know whether the new government would stick roughly to the day-to-day and investment spending totals set out in the March Budget, or whether they would borrow more or tax more to top them up. If they were to stick to spending plans we do not know what would be cut. If taxes are to go up, we do not know which ones. We certainly don’t know how they would respond if things were to get worse.

n

The choices in front of us are hard. High taxes, high debt, struggling public services, make them so. Pressures from health, defence, welfare, ageing will not make them easier. That is not a reason to hide the choices or to duck them. Quite the reverse. Yet hidden and ducked they have been.

n

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You can watch the IFS’s briefing here.

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STARTING NOW: @PJTheEconomist opens our IFS event analysing the 2024 General Election manifestos:

📺 Watch live here: https://t.co/xEbsdKewrQ

Ask questions here: https://t.co/KCa0cVKMon

— Institute for Fiscal Studies (@TheIFS) June 24, 2024

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Today’s Ifo business confidence survey shows that the German recovery is still stuttering, says Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.

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Brzeski explains:

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n

Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, dropped to 88.6 in June, from 89.3 in May.

n

After three consecutive increases at the start of the year, business confidence has weakened again, illustrating that the cyclical bottoming out will not automatically be followed by a strong recovery. Today’s Ifo index weakening was exclusively driven by declining expectations, while the current assessment component remained unchanged, albeit at a low level.

n

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A strong rebound for this year remains highly unlikely, Brzeski fears, citing the Euros as an example:

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n

To some extent, since the start of the year, the German economy has gone through similar phases as the German national football team at the European Championships so far: too much enthusiasm about a good start to the tournament only because the years before had been miserable: a painful reality check in the first 89 minutes in the match last night against Switzerland, followed by a blast of euphoria after scoring in the very last minute.

n

Euphoria after a draw, not after a win; it’s a new reality, both in German football and for its economy.

n

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Niklas Füllkrug 昨晚庆祝他的球队对阵瑞士的进球”,”caption”:”德国的 Niklas Füllkrug 昨晚庆祝他的球队对阵瑞士的进球”,”credit”:”照片：Alexander Scheuber/UEFA/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1719219060000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.51 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1719219531000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.58 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1719219531000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.58 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.58″,”title”:”ING：德国复苏正在仍然结巴”，“贡献者”：[],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 08.25 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”首次发布于 2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 02.38 EDT”},{“id”:”667931db8f089e1574dbd1e2″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Elsewhere in Europe, gloom is rising at German companies.

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German business morale has fallen this month, according to the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, whose business climate index has fallen to 88.6 points this month, down from 89.3 points in May.

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🇩🇪 ifo Business Climate declines – The ifo Business Climate Index declined in June to 88.6 points, down from 89.3 points in May. The German economy is having difficulty overcoming stagnation. #ifosurvey@KlausWohlrabe@FuestClemens pic.twitter.com/ZW9IEZbOz3

— ifo Institut (@ifo_Institut) June 24, 2024

nn”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

IFO reports that business expectations have weakened, at a time when Germany’s economy is struggling to overcome stagnation.

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The report found that factories are being hit by a fall in orders, an issue which is also hurting building firms.

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Clemens Fuest, president of the ifo Institute, explains:

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n

In manufacturing, the business climate declined after three rises in a row. Companies were again more skeptical for the months ahead. They were particularly concerned by the declining order backlog, but were somewhat more satisfied with current business.

n

In the service sector, the index rose. Service providers assessed their situation more positively. The outlook for the second half-year also continued to brighten. Sentiment in the hotel sector, in particular, improved, while the hospitality sector expressed dissatisfaction.

n

In trade, the business climate deteriorated considerably. Regarding expectations, skeptical sentiment increased markedly. Assessments of current business have been corrected downward. Both wholesalers and retailers were equally impacted by the negative development.

n

In construction, the index rose slightly. This was thanks to less pessimistic expectations. However the current situation was assessed as worse. A lack of orders remains a core problem.

n

“,”elementId”:”f9586b7b-22f3-48ff-8b51-db7b172c9deb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1805158832387109003″,”elementId”:”756b6cfa-418a-425a-9eae-be3727bc7da1″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ExTradersGlobal/status/1805158832387109003″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

Germany’s June business indicators fell short; #BusinessExpectations at 89.0 vs 91.0 forecast.#CurrentAssessment steady at 88.3.
Ifo #BusinessClimate Index at 88.6 vs 89.4 forecast. #Germany #Economy

— ExTraders Global (@ExTradersGlobal) June 24, 2024

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Today is a very important day for the effective enforcement of the Digital Markets Act, declares Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice-President in charge of competition policy at the EC.

“,”elementId”:”f890a949-05e1-4689-97d7-c7db2890dc1a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Vestager says:

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n

Our preliminary position is that Apple does not fully allow steering. Steering is key to ensure that app developers are less dependent on gatekeepers’ app stores and for consumers to be aware of better offers.

n

We have also opened proceedings against Apple in relation to its so-called core technology fee and various rules for allowing third party app stores and sideloading. The developers’ community and consumers are eager to offer alternatives to the App Store. We will investigate to ensure Apple does not undermine these efforts.

n

“,”elementId”:”9a0f1aa8-ede1-47b1-86f2-0f1fc7f25c15″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1719216599000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.09 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1719216668000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.11 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1719216668000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.11 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.11″,”title”:”Vestager：今天对于 DMA 执行来说是非常重要的一天”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 08.25 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”首次发布于 2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 02.38 EDT”},{“id”:”667928098f0816d838142c9e”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The European Commission’s latest concerns about Apple fall into two camps.

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1. The EC has informed Apple that it has taken a preliminary view that App Store rules breach the Digital Markets Act (DMA), as they prevent app developers from freely steering consumers to alternative channels for offers and content.

n

2. The EC has opened a new non-compliance procedure against Apple over concerns that its new contractual requirements for third-party app developers and app stores, including Apple’s new “Core Technology Fee”, do not comply with the DMA.

n

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On the first point, the EC says that Apple is making it hard for developers to tell customers about alternative cheaper purchasing possibilities, steer them to those offers and allow them to make purchases.

“,”elementId”:”4d8843a1-0d43-4ddb-9c74-8f13541a3639″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It says that none of Apple’s business terms allow developers to freely steer their customers, and that the fees charged by Apple when a developers acquires a new customer through the AppStore go beyond what is strictly necessary.

“,”elementId”:”1676465e-d26c-4d39-ab12-61e5b962a709″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

On the second point, the EC will investigate whether Apple’s new contractual terms for developers comply with the DMA.

“,”elementId”:”2acacc87-2b75-4fc9-9195-34a6a7b83d43″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It cites three concerns:

“,”elementId”:”a831b688-576c-4ab7-bb72-e0f4832af764″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

1. Apple’s Core Technology Fee, under which developers of third-party app stores and third-party apps must pay a €0.50 fee per installed app. The Commission will investigate whether Apple has demonstrated that the fee structure that it has imposed, as part of the new business terms, and in particular the Core Technology Fee, effectively complies with the DMA.

n

2. Apple’s multi-step user journey to download and install alternative app stores or apps on iPhones. The Commission will investigate whether the steps that a user has to undertake to successfully complete the download and installation of alternative app stores or apps, as well as the various information screens displayed by Apple to the user, comply with the DMA.

n

3. The eligibility requirements for developers related to the ability to offer alternative app stores or directly distribute apps from the web on iPhones. The Commission will investigate whether these requirements, such as the ‘membership of good standing’ in the Apple Developer Program, that app developers have to meet in order to be able to benefit from alternative distribution provided for in the DMA comply with the DMA.

n

“,”elementId”:”51162b78-ff91-4221-a8e3-952559c50a66″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

You can read more here.

“,”elementId”:”cb58634d-27dd-4a41-9b90-0b09f8997ea9″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1719216137000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.02 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1719216581000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.09 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1719216581000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.09 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.09″,”title”:”欧盟委员会针对苹果公司的诉讼”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 08.25 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”首次发布于 2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 02.38 EDT”},{“id”:”667923208f0816d838142c6d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Newsflash: Brussels has accused Apple of restricting competition on its app store.

“,”elementId”:”aa6e347e-bbb2-4cff-9850-aa27c7dba3f9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

European commissioner Thierry Breton has announced that the EU will take action against Apple under its new digital regulations, the Digital Markets Act.

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Posting on X, Breton says:

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For too long Apple has been squeezing out innovative companies — denying consumers new opportunities & choices.

n Today we are taking further steps to ensure AppStore & iOS comply with the DMA.

n

“,”elementId”:”95684d20-1bef-42b3-9b43-c6680f85fab2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1805138863091859564″,”elementId”:”82289833-a8e9-4cb0-a73d-25434bce0128″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://x.com/ThierryBreton/status/1805138863091859564″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

“Act different” should be their new slogan🍏

For too long @Apple has been squeezing out innovative companies — denying consumers new opportunities & choices.

Today we are taking further steps to ensure AppStore & iOS comply with #DMA pic.twitter.com/e741oV9r9l

— Thierry Breton (@ThierryBreton) June 24, 2024

nn”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The EU are also investigating whether Apple’s developer fees breached the bloc’s rules, the Financial Times reports, adding:

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n

As part of the new probe into developer fees, Brussels said it was looking at whether Apple was imposing too many restrictions for users to download and install alternative app stores.

n

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Speaking of misery….the monthly mortgage of a first-time buyer has soared by more than 60% to exceed £1,000 a month since the last general election.

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That’s according to figures from Rightmove that underline the financial challenge facing Britons trying to gain a foothold on the housing ladder.

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Over the last five years, the average mortgage payment for a typical first-time buyer in Great Britain has risen by 61% to £1,075 a month, up from £667 in 2019, according to the property website Rightmove.

“,”elementId”:”5b230a26-5e85-4176-89f6-f054c8ac2fcd”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1805128318162735383″,”elementId”:”315d0423-c1aa-4430-b63d-93bbdd730ea8″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/emmafildes/status/1805128318162735383″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

A stamp duty holiday off the back of a pandemic drove prices up across the country, notably, in areas that offered more space for less money. As interest rates rocketed, first time buyers continued to looked further afield to afford the 61% inc in mortgage payments due to the… pic.twitter.com/240QlCCPR2

— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) June 24, 2024

nn”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The increase of about £400 a month is linked to the march of house prices and interest rates, which have heaped financial pressure on borrowers, whose average wages have grown by just 27% over the same period. The financial squeeze has forced many younger borrowers to either look for smaller properties or to take out an ultra-long mortgage.

“,”elementId”:”b87b3471-8514-4565-8ece-2edf896b15bc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

More here:

“,”elementId”:”16c212bf-eb46-407e-83f6-f3fa9d577adb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Mortgage of first-time buyer tops £1,000 a month as house prices and rates rise”,”elementId”:”bbd00ec5-53ed-4621-b75d-7d2f32771ddb”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/jun/24/mortgage-of-first-time-buyer-tops-1000-a-month-as-house-prices-and-rates-rise”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1719214680000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”03.38 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1719214753000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1719214753000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”03.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”03.39″,”title”:”随着房价和利率上涨，首次购房者的每月抵押贷款额超过 1,000 英镑”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Kalyeena Makortoff”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2022/02/22/Kalyeena_Makortoff.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=594121cb34e62f02f354ff85ece52151″,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2022/02/22/Kalyeena_Makortoff,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c22ec0845321415da97518e6e74376e1″}],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 08.25 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”首次发布于 2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 02.38 EDT”},{“id”:”66791d4c8f089e1574dbd120″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Shares in Britvic have jumped 7% in early trading, after suiter Carlsberg removed one hurdle to a potential takeover.

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Carlsberg has told the City that drinks giant PepsiCo has agreed to waive the change of control clause in the bottling arrangements it has with Britvic.

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This waiver will come into effect if an acquisition of Britvic by Carlsberg proceeds to completion.

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Last Friday, Robinsons maker Britvic announced it has rejected two takeover approaches from Carlsberg, but a further bid is still possible.

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Currently, Britvic has a bottling agreement with PepsiCo giving it exclusive distribution and sales rights for all of the US company’s brands, including 7Up and Lipton Iced Tea, until 2040. But it includes a change-of-control clause that would allow PepsiCo to end the deal, making Britvic less attractive as a takeover target, The Sunday Times reported.

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Carlsberg says today that it is “considering its position”, adding “There can be no certainty that any offer will be made”.

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Britvic shares are up 7.3% at £11.74, having hit an alltime high this morning.

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A slowdown in demand across parts of Europe has hit UK building supplies firm SIG.

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SIG has warned shareholders this morning that profits will be well below expectations for this financial year, saying that market conditions have remained challenging.

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The company has blamed a slowdown in the French and German markets.

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Demand has also been weak in “the end markets of our UK Interiors business”, SIG adds, a sign that Britons may be cutting back on home improvement amid the cost of living squeeze.

“,”elementId”:”9f08c76e-3719-421c-ba0c-198ee98eaec1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It adds:

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n

Whilst we continue to see more robust demand in our Poland, Ireland and UK Exteriors businesses, Group sales overall were weaker than expected in May and June to date.

n

“,”elementId”:”99f67618-2879-412a-8bac-ed600b27d409″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

SIG now expects full year underlying operating profits of £20m-£30m, which is below the current analyst range of £36.7m to £43.0m.

“,”elementId”:”da10b173-bd54-4e23-ac6b-68c643ac996a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1805122188497838363″,”elementId”:”7fe38c51-5f66-4d62-ad09-f5893502cb8a”,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/reb40/status/1805122188497838363″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

#SHI Another Day Another Profit Warning ⚠️ as SIG miss expectations
“Board now expects the Group to report an H1 2024 LFL sales decline of c7%…our full year 2024 underlying operating profit to be in the range of £20m-£30m, which is below the current analyst range”
Ouch 😣 pic.twitter.com/Vi88T6r5Ys

— Aston Girl (@reb40) June 24, 2024

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It hopes that sales will pick up in the second half of this yeara, but cautions:

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n

The extent of this improvement is subject to the evolution of demand conditions, particularly given market uncertainties in France and Germany, and recognising the sensitivity of operating profit to relatively small movements in sales.

n

“,”elementId”:”12f06a15-535e-47ed-9e5c-b0bfd3cf9df2″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1719211668000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.47 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1719213028000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.10 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1719212316000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.58 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.58″,”title”:”英国建筑材料公司 SIG 就利润发出警告”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 08.25 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”首次发布于 2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 02.38 EDT”},{“id”:”6679159f8f089e1574dbd0e1″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Mike Ashley has pulled off another retail deal.

“,”elementId”:”40c71425-a540-4ae7-8ba4-8ee87dca727a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Ashley’s Frasers Group has struck a deal to buy a portfolio of luxury goods websites form UK e-commerce firm THG

“,”elementId”:”72c37dcc-4d4e-4a3c-b0b0-4140382f1545″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The two companies have also agreed a partnership across several areas including with THG Ingenuity, the online platform that serves third-party brands, and online sports nutrition brand Myprotein.

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Advertised salaries for UK jobs have fallen slightly for the first time since last autumn, according to new research which suggest the jobs market is weakening.

“,”elementId”:”51551ec3-2f68-40ec-9edb-64561ddfc6eb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Jobs site Adzuna reports this morning that the average salary being offered for advertised vacancies fell by 0.1% in May, on a monthly basis, to £38,765, down for the first time since last October.

“,”elementId”:”c0dd3352-fefb-4c07-9473-50c68a7c5fef”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Adzuna says:

“,”elementId”:”470bbfaf-9c8e-4a59-bfe7-4c15ebc8629c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

While slightly weaker salaries could help relieve some of the tightness in the UK labour market, it may also suggest increasing vacancies for entry or junior-level roles with lower salaries.

n

“,”elementId”:”18be2ee5-5d62-4627-a6c1-b1e4b3eba79d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

On an annual basis, salaries were 2.69% higher than in May 2023, following the rise in the National Living Wage to £11.44/hour at the start of April.

“,”elementId”:”02bec017-f1d9-4b5a-be0e-74a68edcb50f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The report also found that. vacancies were increasing for teachers but falling for nurses and healthcare staff.

“,”elementId”:”ae587fe6-21e1-4dd5-a13a-8e73402ed379″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Andrew Hunter, co-founder of Adzuna, says:

“,”elementId”:”5dbb6833-6e96-4a8f-a314-62c9fd994804″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“Hopes that a return to growth in Q1 would result in greater confidence in hiring were not reflected in job vacancies in May, which remained essentially flat. However, there were slight increases in roles in Travel, Teaching and Manufacturing – areas where there have been some entrenched staff shortages.

n

“The UK job market has been met with resistance in the past few months but the upcoming general election may have the potential to salvage the situation. Any outcome is likely to move the needle on the sluggish job market, with both the Conservative and Labour parties pledging to create more jobs. Sectors highlighted in their manifestos, such as Healthcare & Nursing, Energy, Oil & Gas, and Manufacturing, all experienced a vacancy drop of more than 20% year-on-year as of May 2024.”

n

“,”elementId”:”48efb68d-2376-4b46-97c4-c81950038642″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1719211119000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.38 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1719211154000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1719211154000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.39″,”title”:”自 10 月以来薪资待遇首次下降”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 08.25 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”首次发布于 2024 年 6 月 24 日星期一 02.38 EDT”},{“id”:”667902158f08035ce49e9d3f”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

“,”elementId”:”1f4467f4-541e-4f58-a0aa-91f90e99d02b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Britain’s Misery Index is tipped to rise later this year and through 2025, giving the next government an early headache.

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Unemployment is set to increase further, puncturing the boost from inflation having fallen back to normal levels this year.

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That means the Misery Index — dreamed up in the 1970s to capture the combined impact of unemployment and inflation on the population — is likely to worsen over the next 18 months.

“,”elementId”:”1876c2bb-148f-4516-8ed6-95292926b8df”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1804817926718988501″,”elementId”:”30e90761-e478-4c18-9c4c-243827af783b”,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/1804817926718988501″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

The UK’s next prime minister faces rise in economic misery right after the election https://t.co/Jaj0hUyqwJ via @irinaanghel12 pic.twitter.com/702NxiSvrh

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) June 23, 2024

“},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The UK unemployment rate has already risen to its highest level in two and a half years, at 4.4% in the February-April quarter. It is forecast to keep rising; the Bank of England estimates it will average 4.6% in the second quarter of 2025, and rise further to 4.8% in Q2 2026 and 2027.

“,”elementId”:”050192f9-900f-4f01-b2a0-850209e308ff”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Bloomberg has calculated that this will push up the Misery Index to around 7.5 points over the first 18 months of the next government, up from six points at present.

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The Misery Index has been falling under Rishi Sunak’s premiership, having hit a painful 15 (the worst since the 1990s) under Liz Truss’s administration in autumn 2022, when inflation was a 40-year high.

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Andrew Oswald, a professor of economics and behavioral science at the University of Warwick, told Bloomberg:

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“We still have quite strong underlying wage inflation, unemployment will have to rise to reestablish the equilibrium.

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“That will be much more painful than inflation has been.”

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Both major parties are promising to help working people, if they win next month’s election. Labour’s pledges include delivering a genuine living wage, updating trade union legislation, banning exploitative zero hour contracts and ending fire and rehire tactics.

“,”elementId”:”640ef939-7aad-4caf-9b9f-b379a222d1f4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Drill into the policy, ignore the puffery: this is a Starmer manifesto more than a Labour one | Aditya Chakrabortty”,”elementId”:”033eedf7-be4e-4b58-9d34-ecb4447c9c6e”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/15/policy-keir-starmer-manifesto-labour-business-tory”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Conservatives are promising another cut to national insurance rates, maintaining the National Living Wage at two-thirds of median earnings, and creating 100,000 more apprenticeships in England every year by the end of next Parliament.

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But without a pick-up in growth, economists fear unemployment will rise as firms lay off some of the staff they have been hoarding in recent years.

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As Hetal Mehta, head of economic research at St. James’s Place, put it:

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“Ten to fifteen years ago, if you said to people unemployment is going to be 5%, they would’ve said that’s a great outcome, but now we’re talking about unemployment rising from what was a much lower point.

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It will be a difficult message for any new government to manage.”

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More here: UK’s Next PM Faces Rise in Economic Misery Right After Election

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The agenda

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• 9am BST: IFO German business climate index

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• 10am BST: IFS to publish analysis of the General Election manifestos

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• 11am BST: CBI industrial trends survey of UK manufacturing

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