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Unsecured debt (loans, credit cards, purchase hire agreements) is on course to increase by 9.4% in real terms (adjusted for inflation), on average, per household this year. Over a quarter of people say they have taken out loans or borrowed on credit cards to cover unexpected bills since the start of the year.
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The TUC says that this is the largest annual rise – in cash terms – since records began in 1987. The union body says the findings make a mockery of government claims that “their plan is working”.
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The analysis excludes student loans.
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Separate TUC polling, carried out by YouGov, shows that millions are continuing to struggle with the cost of living:
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4 in 10 (42%) say they’ve cut back on essentials like food and utility spending this year. And this number rises to nearly 1 in 2 (47%) for women.
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6 in 10 (60%) say they have cut back on non-essential spending like dining out and entertainment since the beginning of the year.
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Nearly a fifth (19%) of respondents say they have fallen behind on household bills this year – a number that rises to over 1 in 4 (28%) for people aged 18-24.
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Over quarter (27%) say have they taken out debt (loans, credit) to cover unexpected bills since the start of the year. This number shoots up to over a third (37%) for adults aged 25-49 – when lots of families raise children.
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UK workers are on course for nearly two decades of lost living standards, with real wages not forecast to recover to their 2008 level until 2026.
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The TUC estimates that the average worker would be £14,700 better off if their pay had grown at the same pace as pre-financial crisis real wage growth trends since 2008.
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Its general secretary Paul Nowak said:
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These findings show out of touch this Conservative government is with people’s struggles. While the Tories boast about their plan working, households across Britain are being pushed further into debt.
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No one should have to rely on credit cards and loans to make ends meet. But after 14 years of flatlining wages – and the worst cost of living crisis in generations – many families are at breaking point.
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The Tories economic record speaks for itself. Pay packets are still worth less today than in 2008 with working people on course to end this parliament poorer than at the start.
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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
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It’s UK inflation day!
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In just a few minutes, we will find out whether inflation across the country has continued to slow, to the official target of 2%.
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Economists are predicting that the headline annual rate fell to 2% in May from 2.3% in April, partly because of lower energy prices. That was the lowest rate in almost three years, although the decline was smaller than expected, and dashed hopes of an early interest rate cut.
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The Bank of England is mandated by the government to keep consumer price inflation at an annual rate of 2%. The figures are released at 7am BST by the Office for National Statistics.
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Core inflation which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, as they tend to be volatile, is forecast to have fallen to 3.5% from 3.9%. The central bank will keep a close eye on the services inflation number, which remained at 5.9% in April.
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Investec economist Sandra Horsfield said:
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UK inflation has certainly come a long way since the monetary policy committee (MPC) last hiked rates in August: the latest consumer price index (CPI) outturn the MPC faced at that time was for June 2023, when headline inflation was 7.9% year-on-year and core inflation 6.9%. By April 2024, the corresponding rates reached 2.3% and 3.9%, respectively.
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We see a number of factors as likely to have pulled down inflation. One is that goods price inflation remains on a downward trend: lower energy prices are still gradually filtering through supply chains, and import prices are falling as China leans on manufacturing exports as an engine of growth. On the services side, wages continue to add to firms’ costs; but even there, the trend in wage growth is downwards, if only moderately. This should have added up to a lower rate of ‘core’ inflation.
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We will also get producer price figures, which measure factory gate inflation – this eventually feeds into consumer price rises.
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The Agenda
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11am BST: Spain Consumer confidence for May
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3pm BST: US National Association of Home Builders’ housing market index for June
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关键事件
今年无担保家庭债务将增加 1,660 英镑
根据英国工会联盟 (TUC) 的最新分析，由于家庭继续挣扎于生活成本危机，今年无担保家庭债务将增加 1,600 多英镑。
今年，每个家庭的无担保债务（贷款、信用卡、购房租赁协议）实际平均增长 9.4%（经通胀调整）。超过四分之一的人表示，自今年年初以来，他们已经借贷或使用信用卡来支付意外账单。
英国工会联盟表示，这是自 1987 年有记录以来现金涨幅最大的一次年度涨幅。该工会组织表示，这一调查结果让政府声称“他们的计划正在奏效”的说法变成了笑柄。
该分析不包括学生贷款。
YouGov 进行的另外一项 TUC 民意调查显示，数百万人仍在为生活成本而苦苦挣扎：
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4/10（42%）的人表示，今年他们削减了食品和水电等必需品的支出。而女性的比例上升到近1/2（47%）。
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有六成（60%）的人表示，自今年年初以来，他们已经减少了外出就餐和娱乐等非必要开支。
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近五分之一（19％）的受访者表示，今年他们已经拖欠家庭账单——对于 18-24 岁人群来说，这一数字上升到四分之一以上（28％）。
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超过四分之一（27%）的人表示，自今年年初以来，他们已经借了债（贷款、信用）来支付意外账单。对于 25-49 岁的成年人来说，这一数字飙升至三分之一以上（37%）——这个年龄段的很多家庭都在抚养孩子。
英国工人的生活水平将下降近二十年，预计实际工资要到2026年才能恢复到2008年的水平。
英国工会联盟估计，如果自2008年以来工资增长速度与金融危机前的实际工资增长趋势相同，普通工人的收入将增加14,700英镑。
其秘书长 保罗·诺瓦克 说：
这些调查结果显示，保守党政府与人民的斗争脱节。当保守党吹嘘他们的计划奏效时，英国各地的家庭正进一步陷入债务泥潭。
任何人都不应该依赖信用卡和贷款来维持生计。但经过 14 年的工资停滞不前，以及几代人以来最严重的生活成本危机，许多家庭已经到了崩溃的边缘。
保守党的经济记录不言而喻。如今的工资仍低于 2008 年，工薪阶层在议会任期结束时的境况将比开始时更糟糕。
引言：英国通胀预计将回落至官方2%目标
早上好，欢迎收看我们对商业、金融市场和世界经济的滚动报道。
今天是英国通货膨胀日！
只需几分钟，我们就会知道全国的通胀率是否继续放缓至2%的官方目标。
经济学家预测，5 月份整体年化利率将从 4 月份的 2.3% 降至 2%，部分原因是能源价格下跌。这是近三年来的最低利率，尽管降幅小于预期，并粉碎了提前降息的希望。
英国政府要求英国央行将消费者价格通胀率保持在 2% 的年率。英国国家统计局于英国夏令时上午 7 点公布这些数据。
核心通胀率（不包括食品、能源、酒精和烟草，因为它们波动较大）预计将从 3.9% 降至 3.5%。央行将密切关注服务业通胀率，4 月份该指数仍为 5.9%。
Investec 经济学家 桑德拉·霍斯菲尔德 说：
自货币政策委员会 (MPC) 于 8 月上一次加息以来，英国的通胀率确实大幅上升：MPC 当时面临的最新消费者价格指数 (CPI) 结果为 2023 年 6 月，当时总体通胀率同比为 7.9%，核心通胀率为 6.9%。到 2024 年 4 月，相应的通胀率分别达到 2.3% 和 3.9%。
我们认为，有多种因素可能拉低通胀。其中之一是商品价格通胀仍呈下降趋势：能源价格下跌仍在供应链中逐渐渗透，进口价格也在下降，因为中国依赖制造业出口作为增长引擎。在服务业方面，工资继续增加企业的成本；但即便如此，工资增长趋势也在下降，即使只是温和的下降。这应该会导致“核心”通胀率下降。
我们还将获得生产者价格数据，该数据衡量的是工厂出厂价格通胀率，这最终会导致消费者价格上涨。
议程
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