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n
Business will welcome such a clear result and an end to the political and economic instability of the last few years which is essential for companies to now bring forward much needed investment.
n
Looking ahead, the new government has a lot in its in-tray to address. First and foremost is the urgent need to kick start the UK’s anaemic growth levels of recent years and, boost investment in our infrastructure, without which we cannot address the many urgent priorities the country faces at national and regional level.
n
A modern, long-term industrial strategy which tackles the skills crisis in particular will be key to delivering this growth. Manufacturers stand ready to work with the new government and all stakeholders as a matter of urgency to help deliver this.
n
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Staples/>Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the new government’s policies mean economic growth could be higher.
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n
The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour government since May 2010 is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape.
n
But at the margin, the policies of the new Labour government generate some upsides to our GDP, inflation and interest rate forecasts. The stability of the pound overnight is no surprise as a Labour win was already priced into the markets.
n
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“The economy may give Labour a helping hand,” he said. He explained:
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n
Labour is taking over just as inflation has fallen back to the 2% target and the Bank of England is on the cusp of cutting interest rates from 5.25%. Our forecasts that inflation will fall a bit further and the Bank will cut rates to 3% next year explains why we think GDP growth will accelerate, to 1.2% this year and to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
n
Moreover, our current estimate is that at the first fiscal event after the election (probably in September), the Office for Budget Responsibility will grant Labour fiscal headroom of around £16bn (0.6% of GDP), up from £8.9bn (0.3%) in the March budget.
n
That may mean Labour can raise spending a bit further than planned without raising taxes or borrowing by more than planned. Looser fiscal policy, though, may just mean inflation is a little higher and interest rates don’t fall as far.
n
“,”elementId”:”9f9aa997-a7f6-4781-a2a1-72a9d7a6a133″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1720157220000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”01.27 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1720158235000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”01.43 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1720157690000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”01.34 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”01.34″,”title”:”分析师：‘GDP、通胀和利率预测存在一些上行空间’”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 7 月 5 日星期五 01.50 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”首次发布于 2024 年 7 月 5 日星期五 01.00 EDT”},{“id”:”66877f418f08b8c654ee5771″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Sterling has firmed slightly this morning. It has risen since Rishi Sunak called the election in late May, and is the strongest-performing major currency against the dollar this year, with a gain of 1.2%.
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Laura Foll, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, said:
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n
It’s a breath of fresh air to be running [UK] 在将选举视为非重大事件的市场中，股票价格
n
我希望我们能回到一个无聊是好事、政治在人们生活中不再那么重要的时代。这将是一个更加渐进的过程 [of confidence]。
n
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政府借贷成本几乎没有变化，10 年期英国政府债券收益率（或利率）上升了 6 个基点。
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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
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We’ve woken up to a landslide Labour victory in the UK.
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Keir Starmer has pledged that it is “now time for us to deliver” as his party’s election victory brings an end to 14 years of Conservative rule. The Labour leader is expected to become prime minister later today.
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Rishi Sunak’s party is on track to record its worst ever performance in a general election.
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As the results are broadly as expected and already priced into financial markets, the pound held steady. It has firmed slightly against the dollar, by 0.1% at $1.2770, and was up a smidgen against the euro at €1.18.
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Stock market futures are pointing to a higher open on the FTSE 100 index in an hour.
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The London Chamber of Commerce said the business community looks forward to a “fresh start” under Labour.
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Chief executive Karim Fatehi said:
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We look forward to working with government over the coming years to build a London where businesses of all sizes thrive.
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Now is the time for the new government to quickly make the changes businesses need to succeed. As laid out in our manifesto this includes the introduction of policies that protect and support the capital’s businesses, enhance London’s international competitiveness, and simplify and enable infrastructure and planning. These policies will lay the foundations for future growth, address long term skills shortages, and foster greater innovation in our capital.
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The CBI business group said “business stands ready to bring its innovation, ideas, and investment to make that shared mission a reality”.
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Rain Newton-Smith, CBI’s chief executive, said:
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The new prime minister has been given a clear mandate to take the tough decisions on areas like planning reform and boosting grid capacity needed to get the economy firing on all cylinders. What firms need now is a government that’s ready to hit the ground running and is laser-focused on delivery.
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Households and businesses across the UK have shown incredible resilience through Brexit, Covid and war in Europe. With the economy picking up steam, now is the moment to get behind growth. Setting out a positive vision for the UK economy and leaning into our international leadership should be top priorities for the first 100 days.
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The TUC said Labour has a “historic opportunity” to “repair and rebuild Britain”.
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The union’s general secretary Paul Nowak said:
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The trade union movement stands ready to work with this new government to deliver the change working families desperately need.
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This means tackling the scourge of insecure work and boosting living standards. It means fixing our crumbling public services. And it means reversing over a decade of Tory stagnation with a proper plan for growth and industrial revival.
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“,”elementId”:”2f629a65-475b-42f2-a1bf-7bf8cc4fe657″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”From Baldwin to Blair and more: the biggest landslides in British election history”,”elementId”:”0b48daf9-35ce-4e95-bcf2-531436d7e59e”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/04/from-baldwin-to-blair-and-more-the-biggest-landslides-in-british-election-history”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
And this is the country following 14 years of Conservative rule:
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The Agenda
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7am BST: Halifax house price index for June
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7am BST: German industrial production for May
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7.45am BST: France trade and industrial production for May
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10m BST: Eurozone retail sales for May
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1.30pm BST: US non-farm payrolls for June (forecast: +190,000), unemployment rate (forecast: unchanged at 4%)
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关键事件
摩根大通英国经济学家 艾伦·蒙克斯 他表示，人们对工党的财政政策方针细节知之甚少，而且这种情况不太可能在选举结果公布后立即改变。
该党表示，不会大幅增税、不会大幅削减开支、不会偏离现行财政规则，同时促进趋势增长。我们认为，如果没有好运气，在下届议会期间实现所有这些承诺将非常困难。
从战略角度来看， 米斯拉夫·马捷卡该银行全球和欧洲股票策略主管将英国股市评级为增持，优先考虑富时 250 指数，而非富时 100 指数。 认为工党获胜对银行和房屋建筑商有利，对公用事业和一般零售业有利有弊，对运输和能源行业则不那么有利。
Make UK：“企业将欢迎如此明确的结果”
史蒂芬·菲普森首席执行官 制造英国， 说：
企业界将欢迎如此明确的结果，结束过去几年的政治和经济不稳定状态，这对于企业现在提前进行急需的投资至关重要。
展望未来，新政府有许多任务需要解决。首要任务是尽快启动英国近年来低迷的增长水平，并增加对基础设施的投资，否则我们就无法解决国家和地区层面面临的许多紧迫问题。
实现这一增长的关键是制定现代的、长期的工业战略，特别是解决技能危机的战略。制造商随时准备与新政府和所有利益相关者合作，帮助实现这一目标。
分析师：GDP、通胀和利率预测存在一定上行空间
保罗·戴尔斯凯投宏观（Capital Economics）首席英国经济学家表示，新政府的政策意味着经济增长可能会更高。
自2010年5月以来，工党上台后，政治格局发生重大变化，但这不太可能导致经济格局发生同样重大的变化。
但从边际上看，新工党政府的政策为我们的 GDP、通胀和利率预测带来了一些好处。英镑隔夜稳定并不令人意外，因为工党获胜已经反映在市场价格中。
他说：“经济可能会向工党伸出援助之手。” 他解释道：
工党上台之际，通胀率已回落至 2% 的目标，英国央行即将从 5.25% 降息。我们预测通胀率将进一步下降，央行明年将把利率降至 3%，这解释了为什么我们认为 GDP 增长将加速，今年将达到 1.2%，2025 年和 2026 年都将达到 1.5%。
此外，我们目前的估计是，在选举后的第一次财政活动中（可能是在9月份），预算责任办公室将为工党提供约160亿英镑（占GDP的0.6％）的财政空间，高于3月份预算中的89亿英镑（占GDP的0.3％）。
这可能意味着工党可以比计划多增加一点支出，而无需增加税收或借贷。然而，宽松的财政政策可能只是意味着通胀率略高，利率不会下降太多。
“五年的变化真大，工党已经扭转局势”，并有望取得决定性胜利， 凯瑟琳·布鲁克斯货币经纪公司研究主管 XTB， 说。
由于结果基本符合预期，英镑对 [the] 新闻。因此，焦点将转移到未来会发生什么。 凯尔·史塔默爵士 仍需要更详细地阐述他的支出和税收计划，以及最重要的是，他将如何发展经济。
金融市场相信，在工党执政下，英国的财政状况是安全的，因此债券收益率和英镑在这次竞选期间保持稳定。 现在的焦点将迅速转移到斯塔默上任的头100天，以及他如何制定经济计划以在改善公共服务的同时促进增长。
投资者将密切关注基尔·斯塔默是否能保持其“稳定”口号和财政审慎，否则他可能会发现债券义勇军就在不远处。最终，债券市场将决定工党的财政政策。
英镑是今年兑美元表现最佳的货币；投资者称“无聊是好事”
英镑今早略有走强。自 里希·苏纳克 英镑在 5 月底宣布了选举结果，是今年兑美元表现最强劲的主要货币，上涨了 1.2%。
劳拉·福尔，投资组合经理 骏利亨德森投资者， 说：
跑步能让人呼吸到新鲜空气 [UK] 在将选举视为非重大事件的市场中，股票价格
我希望我们能回到一个无聊是好事、政治在人们生活中不再那么重要的时代。这将是一个更加渐进的过程 [of confidence]。
政府借贷成本几乎没有变化，10 年期英国政府债券收益率（或利率）上升了 6 个基点。
简介：工党执政期间企业呼吁“重新开始”，英镑保持稳定
早上好，欢迎收看我们对商业、金融市场和世界经济的滚动报道。
我们一觉醒来发现英国工党取得了压倒性胜利。
凯尔·史塔默 承诺“现在是我们兑现承诺的时候了”，因为他的政党的选举胜利结束了保守党 14 年的执政。 劳动 预计这位领导人将于今天晚些时候成为总理。
里希·苏纳克的政党有望在大选中创下有史以来最糟糕的表现。
由于结果基本符合预期且已在金融市场消化，英镑保持稳定。 英镑兑美元汇率小幅走强，上涨 0.1%，至 1.2770 美元，兑欧元汇率小幅上涨，至 1.18 欧元。
股市期货预示一小时后富时 100 指数将开盘走高。
伦敦商会表示，商界期待工党领导下的“全新开始”。
首席执行官 到达法塔希 说：
我们期待在未来几年与政府合作，建设一个各种规模的企业都能蓬勃发展的伦敦。
现在是新政府迅速做出企业成功所需改变的时候了。正如我们的宣言所述，这包括出台保护和支持首都企业、提高伦敦国际竞争力以及简化和支持基础设施和规划的政策。这些政策将为未来增长奠定基础，解决长期技能短缺问题，并促进我们首都的更大创新。
这 英国中央调查局 商业集团表示“企业随时准备带来创新、想法和投资，以使这一共同使命成为现实”。
雷恩·牛顿·史密斯CBI 首席执行官表示：
新任首相被赋予了明确的权力，负责在规划改革和提高电网容量等领域做出艰难决定，以推动经济全面发展。企业现在需要的是一个随时准备行动、全心全意实现目标的政府。
英国各地的家庭和企业在脱欧、新冠疫情和欧洲战争中表现出了令人难以置信的韧性。随着经济复苏，现在是支持增长的好时机。为英国经济制定积极的愿景并依靠我们的国际领导地位应该是头 100 天的首要任务。
英国工会大会表示，工党面临着“修复和重建英国”的“历史性机遇”。
工会秘书长 保罗·诺瓦克 说：
工会运动随时准备与新政府合作，实现工薪家庭迫切需要的改变。
这意味着解决不稳定工作的问题并提高生活水平。这意味着修复我们摇摇欲坠的公共服务。这意味着用适当的增长和工业复兴计划扭转保守党十多年来的停滞状态。
以下是保守党执政14年后的国家状况：
议程
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英国夏令时上午 7 点：六月份哈利法克斯房价指数
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英国夏令时上午 7 点：德国 5 月份工业生产数据
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英国夏令时上午 7:45：法国 5 月份贸易和工业生产数据
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英国夏令时 10 分钟：欧元区 5 月零售销售
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英国夏令时下午 1:30：美国 6 月非农就业人数（预测：+190,000），失业率（预测：维持在 4% 不变）
1720158701
2024-07-05 05:45:15
