尽管德国经济萎缩、法国经济停滞，但欧元区避免了衰退； 英格兰和威尔士公司破产率创30年来新高商业

Newsflash: the eurozone has avoided falling into recession, despite Germany’s economy contracting and France stagnating in the last quarter.

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GDP across the eurozone, and the wider European Union, was flat in the fourth quarter of 2023, data from Eurostat shows.

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That follows the 0.1% contraction in the third quarter, and means Europe has narrowly avoided a technical recession (two negative quarters in a row).

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Euro area #GDP stable in Q4 2023, +0.1% compared with Q4 2022: preliminary flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/quE6F8pO8Z pic.twitter.com/8FRZJO07JX

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) January 30, 2024

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The growth reported in Italy (_0.2%), Spain (+0.6%) and Portugal (+0.8%) this morning will have helped keep the eurozone away from another contraction.

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Newsflash: the number of company insolvencies in England and Wales has hit a thirty-year high.

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The Insolvency Services there were 25,158 registered company insolvencies in England and Wales in 2023.

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This is the highest annual number of company insolvencies since 1993, as firms across the country were hit by high interest rates and the squeeze on consumer spending.

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去年，共有 20,577 起债权人自愿清算 (CVL)（公司在资金耗尽后自愿清盘）、2,827 起强制清算、1,567 起管理、185 起公司自愿安排 (CVA) 和 2 起破产管理任命。

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2023 年，每 186 家活跃公司中有 1 家（每 10,000 家活跃公司中有 53.7 家）进入破产清算。

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因此，由于现有公司数量比 30 年前要多，2023 年的比率仍远低于 2008/09 年经济衰退期间每 10,000 家活跃公司 94.8 家破产的峰值比率。

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While Germany and France struggle, Italy has beaten expectations!

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Italy’s economy grew by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, statistics body ISTAT reports, beating expectations for no growth in Q4, despite weak domestic demand.

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On a year-on-year basis, GDP in the euro zone’s third largest economy was up 0.5%.

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Istat reports:

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n

The quarter on quarter change is the result of a decrease of value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing and of an increase in that of both industry and services.

n

From the demand side, there is a negative contribution by the domestic component (gross of change in inventories) and a positive one by the net export component.

n

“,”elementId”:”62caea5b-12a8-459a-b7d9-b0f6eda8f16d”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1706605929000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”20.12 AEDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1706606063000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”: “20.14 AEDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1706606064000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”20.14 AEDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”20.14″,”title”:”意大利增长了 0.2%”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 1 月 30 日星期二 21.47 AEDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”首次发布于 2024 年 1 月 30 日星期二 17.05 AEDT”},{“id”:”65b8bafb8f088df6e69e534e”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Newsflash: Germany’s economy contracted in the final three months of last year, putting Europe’s largest economy on the brink of recession.

“,”elementId”:”9e14747f-3a28-4a7a-9368-4bebfe706617″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Statistics body Destatis reports that German GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q4 2023, in line with forecasts.

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That follows flat GDP in both the second and third quarters of last year (Q3 has been revised up from a 0.1% fall).

“,”elementId”:”ead2f31a-5fde-4b09-a46d-ae2d8026b644″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Destatis says:

“,”elementId”:”187939d1-4e6c-4a30-b687-f47611d960ef”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

After the German economy more or less stagnated in the first three quarters, economic performance decreased in the fourth quarter of 2023.

n

Compared with the previous quarter, there was a marked decline, in particular, in gross fixed capital formation in construction and in machinery and equipment after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment

n

“,”elementId”:”04eaaf4f-dd5a-4bf0-a2a8-533a0d9d6fbf”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1752256135124373768″,”elementId”:”db8aa9dd-83f0-468c-95a5-9857fca41e6f”,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/Trade_The_News/status/1752256135124373768″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

*(DE) GERMANY Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.3% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.2% V -0.2%E (avoids technical recession due to Q3 revision)
– Prior Q3 GDP QoQ revised higher from -0.1% to 0.0%
(More at https://t.co/GHDbiJTtAe)

— TradeTheNews.com (@Trade_The_News) January 30, 2024

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Over in Austria, the “downward trend in the domestic economy observed last year” was halted in the final few months of 2023, statistics body WIFO says.

“,”elementId”:”89771736-d5db-4b02-b23d-ea86d7e72a5e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

WIFO reports that Austria’s economy grew by 0.2% in Q4 2023, better than the 0.2% contraction expected.

“,”elementId”:”8752f0ad-ef35-4027-8bfd-638d49c14ef8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

That follows two quarters of negative growth – -1.1% in Q2, and 0.5% in Q3 – meaning Austria has escaped a technical recession.

“,”elementId”:”ac815672-90fc-4e37-864f-0565001e5164″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

WIFO reports that Austria’s industrial economy expanded by 0.4% in Q4, while the services sector stagnated and construction shrank by 1%.

“,”elementId”:”3f0cf06f-af64-4ac3-9fe7-88ded79f89a2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

For 2023 as a whole, Austria’s economy shrank by 0.7%.

“,”elementId”:”4dbcf494-7c88-4ca0-89ef-62d9b432c040″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1752244058095780170″,”elementId”:”2bab8cc1-2404-470b-9130-b75a7acf45c3″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/WIFOat/status/1752244058095780170″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

Laut #WIFO-Schnellschätzung konnte die konjunkturelle Abwärtsentwicklung in d. heimischen Wirtschaft zu Jahresende gestoppt werden. Während in d. Industrie Anzeichen einer Bodenbildung zu sehen sind, entwickelten sich d. Dienstleistungsbereiche heterogen. https://t.co/rPUJu6ZdWF pic.twitter.com/WQLC07tme4

— WIFO (@WIFOat) January 30, 2024

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Newsflash: Spain’s economy grew at a faster pace in the final quarter of 2024.

“,”elementId”:”424a564d-3d0e-4ee0-afc0-315d6692d4c1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Spanish GDP expanded by 0.6% in the October-December quarter, up from growth of 0.4% in July-September.

“,”elementId”:”8c485ea7-8e6f-4db2-b4a3-1fb56dd3cfae”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

That’s faster than the 0.2% growth forecast by economist, which may mean today’s eurozone GDP report is a little stronger than expected….

“,”elementId”:”681f2ad0-a086-4f25-9f4a-537906e59e2d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

On an annual basis, Spain’s fourth-quarter economic output expanded by 2%, beating the average estimate of 1.5% in a Reuters poll.

“,”elementId”:”d3757a65-7fac-4a5b-b620-e81386785f8c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1752240253803356649″,”elementId”:”027f161e-c55c-4fd0-b823-893c45c5c84a”,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/PiQSuite/status/1752240253803356649″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

🇪🇸 Spain Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4) $EUR
Actual: 0.6% 🟢
Expected: 0.2%
Previous: 0.4%

— PiQ (@PiQSuite) January 30, 2024

nn”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1752240253497201122″,”elementId”:”038db1bc-21dc-4fb1-93b5-2a1fcaba4b1b”,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/PiQSuite/status/1752240253497201122″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

🇪🇸 Spain Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4) $EUR
Actual: 2.0% 🟢
Expected: 1.5%
Previous: 1.9%

— PiQ (@PiQSuite) January 30, 2024

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Newsflash: The Bank of England has fined HSBC bank £57.4m for failing to protect some customer depositors for several years.

“,”elementId”:”dc309975-092c-406b-b73d-4221779396bb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority said in a statement the bank failed to accurately identify deposits that were eligible for Britain’s Financial Services Compensation Scheme – which protects customer cash up to 85,000 pounds.

“,”elementId”:”c5395670-3c9f-465b-8fbf-0556708ac5b3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The failings occurred for HSBC Bank (HBEU) between 2015 and 2022, and for HSBC UK Bank between 2018 and 2021, says the PRA,

“,”elementId”:”23401973-97b5-4575-a70c-40d77a3d7b8b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

This is the second highest fine imposed by the PRA, which it says “reflects the seriousness of the failings.”

“,”elementId”:”ea3039d1-81ae-462f-9ea1-3a87987a5307″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Sam Woods, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and CEO of the PRA, said:

“,”elementId”:”dc28d869-1a1e-4994-931f-12958d16ca2b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“The serious failings in this case go to the heart of the PRA’s safety and soundness objective. It is vital that all banks comply fully with our requirements around preparedness for resolution.

n

HBEU fell far short of its obligations in this area, and failed to disclose its failings to us in a timely manner. These failures led to today’s action, including the significant fine.”

n

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Newsflash: France has avoided falling into a technical recession, after stagnating in the last half of 2023.

“,”elementId”:”bbadce50-47f4-4c99-8038-2b03721394c1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Statistics body INSEE has got eurozone GDP day (details here) up and running by reporting that France’s economy was stable in October-December, with growth of 0.0%.

“,”elementId”:”5cf4ed5a-2ea6-4169-8cf7-cf9c1105bff0″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Trade supported the French economy, while its domestic economy struggled.

“,”elementId”:”0acd30a4-63b0-488b-92cb-898ee5edc040″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

INSEE explains:

“,”elementId”:”2137f755-52c5-4b60-a3d4-7ad0bd68c4c1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (‑0.1 points after +0.4 points in Q3 2023), due to the decrease of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, ‑0.7% after +0.2%) and of household consumption (‑0.1% after +0.5%).

n

Conversely, foreign trade recovered in Q4 2023 and contributed positively to GDP growth (+1.2 points after ‑0.1 points). Imports fell sharply (‑3.1% after ‑0.4%), while exports remained virtually unchanged (‑0.1% after ‑0.6%).

n

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative again this quarter (‑1.1 points after ‑0.3 points in Q3 2023).

n

“,”elementId”:”d181282a-0ce9-47f7-a9c1-79e6d2bf3732″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1752217999430287441″,”elementId”:”e5b0048a-1dec-42d3-bb74-16740d527dff”,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1752217999430287441″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

🔴 FRENCH GDP Q4 2023 FULL REPORT https://t.co/mjXf4p1YWJ

— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) January 30, 2024

“},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

France’s GDP for the third quarter of 2023 has been revised up too, to show zero growth, not the 0.1% contraction previously reported.

“,”elementId”:”3f19cc60-3499-4f08-be75-4cd3e6f26edc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Over 2023 as a whole, France’s economy grew by just 0.9%, down from 2.5% growth in 2022.

“,”elementId”:”49e9758c-40d3-482a-a402-d8116af05afe”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1752217895520641367″,”elementId”:”95b473d5-4c3c-43eb-9151-4730e59fd8a5″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1752217895520641367″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

French GDP (Q/Q) Q4 P: 0.0% (est 0.0%; prev R 0.0%)
– GDP (Y/Y): 0.7% (est 0.7%; prev 0.6%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 30, 2024

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Inflation across UK shops has fallen to its lowest level since May 2022, as households benefitted from a slowdown in price rises of food and other goods.

“,”elementId”:”db24616f-16c0-4b43-be5a-cf0a90dfa630″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Annual shop price annual inflation eased to 2.9% in January, new data from the British Retail Consortium and NielsenIQ show. That’s down from 4.3% in December, meaning prices are still rising, but at a slower rate.

“,”elementId”:”6a0f7ec8-60cc-4003-9b44-ab8166366d80″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Food inflation decelerated to 6.1% in January, down from 6.7% in December, helped by a fall in the price of tea and milk, Alcohol, though, remained more expensive than a year ago due to increased duties, the BRC says.

“,”elementId”:”7cc96c27-b65f-4ef6-a3da-d27471454393″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Fresh food inflation dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.4% in December, while non-food inflation eased to just 1.3% in January, down from 3.1% in December.

“,”elementId”:”50312dde-266b-40e1-8c55-72020732cf55″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

This may cheer the Bank of England, which is due to set UK interest rates at noon on Thursday.

“,”elementId”:”4e2f0f0d-f150-4a67-9f0b-ac11f099cb53″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said:

“,”elementId”:”62e11637-a845-413f-8847-3614c312518f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“Some New Year cheer as January shop price inflation slid to its lowest level since May 2022. Non-food goods drove the fall, as many retailers offered heavily discounted goods in their January sales to entice consumer spend amidst weak demand.

n

Good news for the morning brew as the price of tea and milk fell, while evening tipples remained more expensive on the back of increased alcohol duties.

n

“,”elementId”:”439bc582-1bb9-4a22-857f-38056c224b08″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1752121248706879960″,”elementId”:”036bc5c2-27b5-4173-a651-56d734f379dd”,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/Seb_TFX/status/1752121248706879960″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

⚠️ UK SHOP PRICES RISE AT SLOWEST PACE SINCE MAY 2022: BRC
Prices in British shops rose at the slowest annual pace since May 2022 this month, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said on Tuesday, adding to signs of easing inflation pressures ahead of this week's Bank of England…

— Seb (@Seb_TFX) January 30, 2024

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

“,”elementId”:”31e4cee8-9a5a-47ed-9fac-c44dbbe6bd4b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

We get a major healthcheck on Europe’s economy this morning, as new GDP data for across the eurozone is released.

“,”elementId”:”544fd4b6-e749-48cb-a20b-9fe1c5fbd3e3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Growth figures for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria and Portugal will be released over the next few hours, culminating in the first estimate of eurozone growth in the final quarter of 2023.

“,”elementId”:”fc14d8b6-f42b-468f-978d-dea5a2a9ecdf”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

And it may show that the eurozone is in recession. Economists predict that GDP in the single-currency bloc shrank by 0.1% in Q4 2023. If so, that would be the second quarterly contraction in a row (GDP fell 0.1% in July-September), meeting the technical definition of a recession.

“,”elementId”:”7c11f827-8489-40d1-b864-2022180436b4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The eurozone economy has been weighed down by high interest rates, and the cost of living squeeze caused by the jump in energy and food prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“,”elementId”:”2aeea772-a3a6-4e6c-aff9-09d7c6655056″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The euro weakened yesterday ahead of today’s data, as Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, explains:

“,”elementId”:”6ddf0702-06bb-427a-b7c6-09c0b0ecc2db”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

EUR/USD is trading lower at 1.0832 (-0.18%) ahead of the EA flash GDP data, expected to show a second consecutive quarter of contraction (-0.1% exp) and confirm the Euro Area entered recession.

n

“,”elementId”:”d5850b09-9d4d-4da5-8b0f-354c3aa3ad99″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

Also coming up today

“,”elementId”:”fc1065af-7e89-419f-90e5-4e637577548f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

In a busy morning for economic data, we’ll also learn if UK grocery inflation fell in the last month, and whether lenders approved more, or fewer, mortgages.

“,”elementId”:”c033bc02-f859-45f8-b6d9-5ff0a8852022″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The US economy, which has been doing rather better than Europe, will also be in focus, with the latest JOLTS report into job vacancies, a consumer confidence report and a house price index.

“,”elementId”:”7b554b0b-49be-4f35-93ec-dbccfbeeaf70″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

We also get a healthcheck on the global economy, with the International Monetary Fund releasing an update to its world economic outlook this afternoon.

“,”elementId”:”a01fa856-6218-4675-af78-24b8144065d7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

There will also be disruption on UK railways today, as members of the Aslef union at Southeastern, Southern/Gatwick Express, Great Northern, Thameslink and South Western Railway strike in an ongoing pay dispute.

“,”elementId”:”627545ec-921d-4bc9-948f-78c5e65df08f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1752091750485955015″,”elementId”:”f15ddc16-c1f3-4827-b05f-791e22bfb1b2″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/JohnKicklighter/status/1752091750485955015″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

The global macro event calendar is stocked over the next 24 hours. Just be mindful of trending themes and subsequent event risk.
My top watch: IMF world growth outlook; $MSFT and $GOOG earnings; Eurozone #GDP; Japan unemployment; US consumer confidence and job openings: pic.twitter.com/hAPM7r4j4t

— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) January 29, 2024

“},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

“,”elementId”:”55480812-c7c7-4774-bb29-e902a80e63ed”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

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• 6.30am GMT: French GDP report for Q4 2023

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• 8am GMT: Kantar’s latest UK grocery inflation data

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• 8am GMT: Spanish GDP report for Q4 2023

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• 8am GMT: Austria’s GDP report for Q4 2023

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• 9am GMT: Germany’s GDP report for Q4 2023

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• 9am GMT: Italy’s GDP report for Q4 2023

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• 9.30am GMT: Portugal’s GDP report for Q4 2023

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• 9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals for December

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• 10am GMT: Eurozone GDP report for Q4 2023

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• Noon GMT: Mexico’s GDP report for Q4 2023

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• 1pm GMT: IMF to publish its January World Economic Outlook Update

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• 2pm GMT: US house price index for November

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• 3pm GMT: Conference Board index of US Consumer Confidence

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• 3pm GMT: JOLTS survey of US job openings

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